Every holiday season, prognosticators make predictions about the level of sales on Black Friday, and investor confidence may be affected by whether or not those expectations are met. We delete comments that violate our policy , which we encourage you to read. The length of the shopping season is not the same across all years: Retrieved 24 November
Black Friday — the name given to the first day after Thanksgiving — is one of the most important retail and spending events in the United States. Every holiday season, prognosticators make predictions about the level of sales on Black Friday, and investor confidence may be affected by whether or not those expectations are met. If consumers follow up Thanksgiving by spending a lot of money on Black Friday — and retailers show strong numbers — then investors might have their first indication that it is shaping up to be a particularly profitable shopping season.
This confidence is reflected in the stock market. In this manner, Black Friday could be considered a leading indicator for the markets. Conversely, many take it as a sign of trouble if retailers are unable to meet expectations on Black Friday. Concern over the health of the economy is magnified if consumers are perceived to be saving too much. This can cause the stock market to suffer.
Thanksgiving is an important day for a lot of businesses, particularly those in the food industry. However, stock market trading is unlikely to be affected by Thanksgiving alone because of the importance of the day after. Black Friday is important because this is the shopping day on which many retailers have traditionally made enough sales to put them in the black for the year.
Since many retailers consider Black Friday to be crucial to their business's annual performance, investors look at Black Friday sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the entire retail industry. Economists, based on the Keynesian assumption that spending drives economic activity, view lower Black Friday numbers as an indication of slowed growth. The stock market can be affected by having extra days off for Thanksgiving or Christmas. The markets tend to see increased trading activity and higher returns the day before a holiday or a long weekend, a phenomenon known as the holiday effect or the weekend effect.
Many traders look to capitalize on these seasonal effects. Many analysts and investors scoff at the notion that Black Friday has any real Q4 predictability for the markets as a whole. Instead, they suggest that it only causes very short-term gains or losses.
A Market Watch analysis performed by Mark Hulbert looked at a year sample on stock market performance following Thanksgiving and throughout the rest of the calendar year. He concluded that there was no correlation between a Black Friday bump and Q4 performance. And the Cyber Monday sale. And the Christmas-in-July sale. There's always another sale just around the corner.
The trick, of course, is keeping tabs on items you want to buy and finding out when they go on sale again. Sure, you can subscribe to newsletters, which the stores love, but those won't pinpoint specific items you want -- and eventually the deluge of mail gets to be too much. Instead, put a price-tracker to work.
These tools monitor specific items and notify you when they go on sale. Here are a few worth checking out:. Available for Chrome, Firefox and Safari, the Camelizer leverages the popular but curiously named Camelcamelcamel price-tracking service for Amazon. Once the browser add-on is installed, just head to any product page and then click the Camelizer button.
You'll see visual price-history data, which will tell you the lowest the price has been during the past year. And with one click you can track that product and get notified of price drops. It embeds price-tracking data right into the Amazon product page. You have to scroll down a bit to see it, otherwise you might not even realize Keepa is working. Use a tool like Keepa to keep an eye on products like the DJI Phantom 4, which has seen some big price fluctuations.
Nov 28, · Prices for products like personal computers, cameras, TVs, toys and video games tend to hit their low point of the season not on Black Friday but in the two to three days afterward, according to the data from PriceStats, which monitors daily online price changes for a wide range of goods. You Can't Shop Black Friday Sales Until the Day Of Some poor souls are still waiting! Black Friday creep is real, though. Notable discounts pop up as early as the week before Thanksgiving, and the entire Black Friday week is full of deals. According to one poll, 70% of Americans said that Black Friday is meaningless because there will be more sales throughout the holidays.” There is also some hard evidence that there’s often nothing special when it comes to prices during Black Friday weekend; one study estimated that the average discount on Black Friday was less than 5%.